July 1, 2022 — A Change in Direction

 

 

Hello, those that follow and peek in once in a while.

I’ve pretty much decided to stop doing my version of Meb Faber’s Timing Model. It has served me very well since about 2008, and I am where I am today because of it.

Starting next year, I’ll have to do the Required Minimum Distribution thing in my IRA, and doing the timing model in that plus the RMDs would be too much work. This IS a lazy retirement blog, right?

So, what I’ll do instead, is just invest a portion of my IRA into Cambria’s Trinity Portfolio (TRTY). Cambria funds are managed by Meb Faber, and the allocation in this ETF sounds very close to what I want to do with my own portfolio anyway. So, I’m handing this work over to Meb.

I’ll continue my posts on my dividend investments, and who knows, maybe do something crazy like Dogs of the Dow. Would you like to follow that with me?

Anyway, for those in the USA, Happy 4th of July! I’ll still be around.

~B-

April 1, 2022 — Buy Some Back

Hello, and happy April Fool’s Day! It’s a special day for me since my little grandson has his birthday today, and yes, another grandson is on his way! Fun stuff!

Anyway, our Basic Timing Model gives us this:

As you can see, SPY is making a comeback. DBC and IEF are the exact opposites of each other.

---

DIA, QQQ, and MDY are in “buy” territory again. The little guys, IWM, EEM, are still in out territory, as is TLT.

---

There’s nothing new here… The commodities of GLD and USO are holding well, and TIP and VNQI are still “out”.

---

That’s about all for now folks! I have to go wrap up my grandson’s present.

See ya in a couple of weeks for the monthly dividend report.

~B-

March 1, 2022 — Get Defensive

Is the whole world going to H3LL? It sure seems like it. Between inflation, supply chain issues, and now a war in the Ukraine, it all seems overwhelming. So, I turn off the news, go down to my quiet basement, and analyze my portfolio, like I do every month. Thank goodness I can do that, and yes, I still have a portfolio. I am grateful.

It looks like SPY is hanging on, but this chart is the close on February 28. Taking all the negativity into account, and the fact it is down as I write this on March 1, I let SPY go. RWR seems tso be hanging on nicely, and I already had it. Of course, DBC continues its trend upwards.

---

Surprisingly, MDY (Mid-caps) has a nice tick upwards, which is a surprise. However, it is not as definite as it could be, and again, today, it’s in loss territory, so I remained out of it. I also sold DIA, so that pretty much does it for the main stock indexes. We’ll see what happens.

---

If you’ve been listening to the news, you know that gold has been advancing and looking strong. I bought it today. USO continues its upward trend. TIP has a tick upwards, so we’ll watch that and stay out for now. 

So, to summarize, this month I’m out (sold) SPY, DIA, and bought GLD. Just to let you know, I bought BND to hold my cash while this craziness is going on. As I write this, it is yielding about 1.96%, much better than most bank accounts. 

Take care everyone, and with all the trouble the world is having, be grateful and enjoy what you have.

~B-

February 1, 2022 — A Semi-Big Selloff

Sometimes, investing seems like a big roller coaster ride. You’re in the front car, cre-e-eping up the big upward incline, anticipating the big downward, free-falling move. Then, suddenly, you’re there, and your stomach leaps into your throat and d-o-o-o-w-n you go.

At least, that’s how it feels when your emotions lead your trading decisions. After you’ve experienced a few downturns, and have a solid plan in place, it’s just another move, and this, too shall pass, and you have a plan to get in again when the time is right.

So here are the results from mid-day January 31 for the Basic Timing Model:

As you can see, SPY has held on to its position above the moving average line. So have RWR and DBC. We’ve been out of IEF for a while, and EFA whipsawed us.  Oh, well.

---

Whew! Out of this group, we’re only hanging on to DIA. We’ve been out of EEM for a while, but everything else (Except DIA, of course), has signaled “out”.  It looks like the big boys, SPY and DIA are still hanging on.

---

Well, GLD can’t seem to make up its mind if it’s in or out. It’s another whipsaw this month. TIP’s downturn is a surprise, but maybe it’s increasing its distributions. Anyway, we’re out for now. VNQI has been down for a while, but USO continues its climb.

---

Although it has been kind of rough in the markets this month, I hope you’re all sleeping OK at night. With a good plan in place you should have no worries.

Until next time…

~B-

January 1, 2022 — Buy GLD & EFA

It looks like we have to get back in to GLD and EFA after a nice Santa Claus rally this past week.

Here’s the chart for our Basic Timing Model:

As you can see, EFA popped over the moving average again, making it a “buy” (and a whipsaw).

---

Here’s the rest of the Timing Model charts:

Although TLT went down, it’s right on the line, so we’ll hold on to it for now.

---

And, as you can see here, GLD is now over the moving average line, so it’s now a buy, as well. VNQI continues its downward trend.

---

Happy New Year, everyone! Here’s hoping a prosperous 2022 for you!

~B-

December 1, 2021 — Sell EFA

Well, in spite of all the volatility in the markets lately, it only shows up as a small blip on most of our long-term charts… it pays to not panic.

It looks like we need to sell EFA. DBC is headed downward in spite of the fact that commodity prices we pay for are going up… so maybe that’s a good sign for our household bills.

It looks like DIA is headed downward, but still above the moving average, so we’ll hold on for now. Same for MDY and IWM. We sold EEM last month, and we already have TLT.

For GLD, we’re out for now. USO, hold if you want… VNQI, that’s a sell for now.

Hang in there, folks. This crazy Covid cr@p will end sooner or later. Now we have to welcome the Omicron variant. I’m getting pretty tired of this…

TTYL,

~B-

 

November 1, 2021 — Buy TLT

Due to a lack of time this month, and a lack of proper tools, I only have one chart to show:

As you can see, TLT has peeked over its moving average line.

So, tomorrow I’m going to buy back in.

Hopefully, next month, I’ll be able to produce the normal format for this blog.

Until next time, so long, and Happy Halloween.

~B- 

September 1, 2021 — No Changes, kick back and Enjoy the Ride

No change this month, just relax and let it flow.

Although IEF has come down a bit, it’s still riding above the moving average line. So let it be…

---

EEM appears to have bounced off the moving average line, and TLT has a similar situation to IEF (they’re both US Treasury Bond ETFs, so that figures…)

---

Lastly, GLD has come down a bit, but is still riding above the moving average line, so we’ll leave it alone for now.

I must apologize that I did not get around to my monthly dividend report this month. The birth of my new grandson and helping to care for my 2-year-old grandson while his momma healed took up all my time. Imagine that! I’m also executrix for my late mother’s will and the hearing is in about 3 hours from now. And this is retirement?  Wow… just wow…

That’s it for now, everybody. Take care…

~B-

 

July1, 2021 — Sell GLD

It does appear that GLD has whipsawed us (those that do the Meb Faber style of market timing, that is.) GLD is down nearly 7% since I bought it last month. Oh well, it happens.

Everything else is doing well, though, so selling GLD is the only change this month.

Looking at these charts as a whole, it looks like the markets are resting just a bit, but the bubble has not burst yet.

Thanks for stopping by, take care, everyone! Washington State is officially open today, and things are back to “normal”, whatever that is/was. Let’s hope we have Covid-19 beat, and we can stay open.

‘Til a couple of weeks, when I’ll post my dividend report.

~B-

May 2, 2021 — Kick Back, and Hold On

No changes to make this month. Everything’s pretty much the same.

AS always, you can click on the charts for a closer look, then click on your browser’s “Back” button to get back here.

No changes here… IEF looks like it’s ticking up a bit, and we’ll see what happens this month.

**********************************************

This set looks about the same… no action needed. And, like IEF above, TLT is ticking up.

**********************************************

Nothing to do here, either, but keep an eye on GLD. It could go above the moving average by end of month.

**********************************************

That’s it for now! Just relax and enjoy the ride up, as long as it lasts…

~B-